Data, to macro-economic outlook from the

 Understanding the market outlook from macroeconomic data to
2009-10-15
Daily News on October 14 thanks to a series of major macroeconomic data released better than expected, the stock market surged.
Monetary data China's economy is not bad money. latest central bank data show that, as of the end of third quarter of 2009, China's foreign exchange reserve balance reached 2.2726 trillion U.S. dollars, an increase of 19.26%, indicating that continue to enhance the pressure of RMB appreciation, RMB assets are chasing high probability event. However, in order to prevent the appreciation of the renminbi, the central bank will strictly control the hot money out, such as the Japanese appreciation of the currency caused by asset price rose scene can not be repeated.
9 January China's new RMB loans to 516.7 billion yuan, higher than expected. broad money and narrow currency increased to 9 at the end, the broad money supply (M2) amounted to 58.54 trillion yuan, up 29.31% compared with, increase over the previous year high 11.49 percent, 0.78 percentage points from the previous month; narrow money supply (M1 ) amounted to 20.17 trillion yuan, an increase of 29.51%, an increase over the previous year high 20.45 percent, 1.79 percentage points higher than the previous month end; market currency in circulation (M0) amounted to 3.68 trillion yuan, an increase of 15.96%. before Third quarter net cash 256.9 billion yuan, 96.5 billion yuan more than the running. M1 M2 growth rate of more than 0.2%,UGG boots clearance, roughly between the two.
This shows that the phenomenon of the current active demand deposits, time deposits declined, the stock market, etc. investment goods market also is active, if the future M1 continued rapid growth, with M2 growth rate differential continues to expand, then the investment goods market will remain active. taking into account up to 29%, far more than 14% of the target, estimated duration is not will be too long. In fact, the inter-bank interest rate in September rose slightly, while the most sensitive private lending has begun to accelerate the rise in market interest rates, may mean that the subsequent savings into the stock market investment funds, the power is consumed, the latter can not be a substantial market rise, vibration cycle is not over. Deposit growth is also lost to loan growth illustrated this point.
from the real economy, China's foreign trade situation improved considerably in January .9, Chinese imports and exports both over one hundred billion U.S. dollars, a larger than gains. General Administration of Customs announced in September China's import and export value of 218.94 billion U.S. dollars, down one as, growth of more than one into four. which, exports 115.93 billion U.S. dollars, down a five percent; imports 103.01 billion U.S. dollars, down 3.5%.
recovery in foreign trade at the same time, should see three major challenges facing China's foreign trade: first, slow global economic recovery, exports about 20% back to the honeymoon period of high growth is not realistic, the future to maintain growth of about 8-10% is no small achievement; Second, China suffered more and more trade friction, which means the cost of exports before the crisis than a substantial increase, and will have serious implications for the steel industry. to occupy half of China's exports of electromechanical products, for example, the first nine months, export of electromechanical products 496.37 billion U.S. dollars, down 19.6%. which exports electrical and electronic products 206.38 billion U.S. dollars, down 19.5%; machinery and equipment exports 164.77 billion U.S. dollars,UGGs, down 18% ; Third, the slow restructuring of China's export products, export products have not increased bargaining power. This year the first three quarters, clothing, textiles, footwear, furniture and other major labor-intensive exports to be far less than the same period year on year decline in overall export decline, prove rigidity of the main labor-intensive products due to global demand for the existence of anti-crisis capacity rather than strong mechanical and electrical products.
It is encouraging that the growth of domestic consumption. real estate transactions whether, according to China Association of Automobile Manufacturers released the same day The latest statistics, a series of national auto consumption policy to expand under the impetus of domestic car sales month this year 1m9 double over last year, more than 9.6 million, respectively, close to ten million mark, the brightest spot in the global market, automotive production and sales was a good month .9 performance of the respective 1,362,100 and 1,331,800, growth of 19.41% and 16.98%, an increase of 78.85% and 77.88%, and sales hit a record high.
real estate, cars along with the infrastructure investment has become China's economic recovery the three engines. Now the only worry is that the Chinese auto industry is because of the explosive growth of the withdrawal and end of the stimulus. There is a precedent in Europe and America, new cars were sold in the U.S. auto market 746,000,Bailey UGG boots, compared to last year fell 22.7%. Germany because the government nearly 50%, a sharp decline in market demand. halve the Chinese market if the purchase of tax subsidies to the end of the car to the countryside, the market is likely to enter the inflection point, overdraft of the consumer will show a decline in sales next year.
As regards the current A-share market heat I am afraid that the three quarterly market speculation as a concept can only listen to 13 .10, deputy director of the International Department of China Securities Regulatory Commission in the fourth Xie Shikun Russian Economic Forum and the Fourth Session of financial and financial cooperation between China and Russia forum, said that this year, listed companies operating conditions gradually improved, the first three quarterly profit chain rebounded sharply. As a result, securities brokerage under the Great Wall of China stock market rose little or not correlation with the index and, as China's rapidly expanding virtual economy of scale, profit decline in the quality of listed companies, many through the cross-ownership and equity investment,UGG boots cheap, direct investment from, it plainly, is the redistribution of benefits.
shock for the market city of conclusions remain unchanged, loose monetary policy will be phased out, the data for profit to maintain market sentiment, the time has come.
Note: There are two messages that raised funds for the shelter.
first public fund-to-many into the future growth, and private the contest began.
Second, the Commission issued an Short-term holders will charge a redemption fee, at present, redemption fees are generally less than 0.5%, while the new regulatory requirements on the holding period of less than 30 days, fund managers may waive the redemption fee, and Fund managers may be less than the holding period of 7 and 30 investors were to receive the redemption amount not less than 1.5% and 0.75% redemption fee, and redemption fees should be fully included in the Fund property. investment funds Even if a lock, and raised funds on the numerous add a heavy unfair injustice.
is to see the bank raised funds Mozhe, two-meet wins stronger and more horizontal.