China's stock market tumbled, or liquidity expansion in the excitement again

 The central bank may be forced to re-release on (declined reproduced)
liquidity as central banks begin to control the release of the pace of the market capital of anxiety, a short few days a large number fled the stock market crash. The same is true inter-bank bills market, Dahon seems to smell to the taste of the interest rate in the end, only recently out of a ticket, not into the vote.
view beginning in January of this year, bank credit than-expected growth,UGG boots, especially finance bills soaring, the central bank action has begun to become conservative and cautious. In addition to officials have repeatedly come forward and let it be, the interest rate implied in the end. Central Bank on February 17 in the open market option to repurchase varieties were 91 days excess repurchase operations, the amount of repurchase up to 1200 billion, this regulation is interpreted as designed to stabilize the financing of months of rapid notes, because the bill financing the average duration is generally 3 to 4 months. February 24 in the open market, the central bank issued 80 billion yuan of 28-day repurchase agreements, the successful rate 7th consecutive unchanged at 0.90% level, the net currency withdrawn from circulation starting. Last week, the central bank through open market, 63.5 billion yuan of net return of funds.
market funds began to shake, and fear.
past control history prove that China's monetary authorities do not have much to do forward-looking. to see beyond the situation even pretty good week.
various information displays, the Chinese trade surplus in February is likely to occur substantially narrowed, or even rule out the last ten first monthly trade deficit years occurred.
China since last October, as imports fell far more than exports, the high degree of sustained surplus of more than four months to be interpreted as a sharp decline in domestic demand (as many analysts believe that China depends on imports on investment). but in fact the top in China's investment has been high (due to the Government to stimulate the rapid start).
In my opinion, China's imports and exports, key decision factors are determined by the order.
the past ten In fact, in the formation of a so-called Pan-Asia as the center of China's trade flow, pan-Asian country's export and import of the same period China has a very high correlation between the synchronization,bailey UGG boots, the Chinese from these countries import large quantities of raw materials, the core parts and semi-finished products, use of domestic low-cost labor and infrastructure sufficient to lower trade costs, and form the final product exports, multinational corporations recent years to organize the basic process in accordance with the global production and sales, therefore, G3 deep recession, look at the process from the production chain, the first induction to the needs of collapse process should be the front-end product manufacturer, such as South Korea and Taiwan,UGG boots cheap, so their exports since last October have started diving, and the corresponding exactly synchronous collapse of China's imports.
China's trade structure in two out roughly half the processing trade and general trade, processing trade still a considerable component of the composition. This structure means that Chinese imports are under a few leading indicators of export. current collapse in imports,UGG shoes, which means the next few months, exports will decline faster. Last year in the fourth quarter is difficult to sustain the high surplus.
while China is the main channel of money supply, foreign exchange, surplus and reserve growth significantly reversed decline or even negative growth, which means the next few months, China will face unprecedented pressure tightening effect.
could be expected in the near future, China's monetary authorities will be forced to make a choice: devaluation or the release on again .
be honest, the RMB is going up is easy, really down to derogatory He Qinan Yeah. sharp depreciation could trigger a more intense internal contraction. One day we are not better than the case of a currency devaluation will inevitably intensify Trade frictions and protectionism emotional response. another result of devaluation is no effect on anyone, but there is the risk of a hard landing of world trade as a whole. Second, the expected depreciation is too strong may lead to capital flight accelerated, and thus downward pressure on asset prices, the renminbi, the Chinese'd not afraid of capital flight, 2 trillion dollars of reserves sufficient to meet, but you can not change private sector expectations, wealth can not prevent him from doing the restructuring, asset prices, a hard landing if the yuan, to the the banking system to combat a huge, everyone knows the basic mode of China's banks still in the pawn shop era, more than 90% of collateral loans. Bank credit crunch is bound to exacerbate the contraction of the real economy. Third, even if you want to depreciate also be difficult. 2007 In June, IMF adopted the currency manipulation can use rules to sanction you. obvious that the placement of the yuan exchange rate, a at least in the Chinese economy faced a ), cut the open space will be greatly, China cut interest rates in the space is not the subjective assumption of certain officials. hanging high in the 16% reserve rate, or faster than the interest rate back to nature (10 % or less).
market is the best hope to get from the international balance of payments reversed signal is: China's stock market recently suffered setback or liquidity expansion in the excitement one again.